The Looming Pilot Shortage: Reality . . . or Not?

The impending pilot shortage that has been predicted and is being followed by many will likely be a non-event for the industry; more accurately it is an annunciator requiring attention and a few logical actions.  This particular shortage of qualified pilots is expected to exhibit the need for 95,760 pilots over the next 20 years (Higgins et al. 2013).  One prime contributing factor is the increasing number of airline pilots retiring upon or near their 65’Th birthday.  According to Higgins et al. (2013) an estimated 45,000 airline pilots in the next 20 years will retire, while there is currently an estimated 18,000 regional pilots available for airlines to hire from.  This event will cause staffing problems for the regional airlines twofold: loss of qualified personnel to the airlines and difficulties fielding candidates with appropriate experience.  This issue in regards to regional companies is further complicated with the newly implemented airline transport (ATP) certificate requirements.  Expected major airline growth is also predicted to concurrently worsen the pilot shortage predicament.  As additional aircraft are put into service a corresponding number of pilots will be required, Higgins et al. (2013) calculated an aggregate staffing ratio of 14.44 airline pilots for each aircraft in service.  As more aircraft are added to major airline fleets and a greater number of pilots are recruited to fly them it is very likely to perpetuate problems within the regional carriers. 

There is evidence to support an imposing pilot shortage to come in the next two decades if the industry continues on its present course.  Should the industry be unyielding to accommodate the future and precautions not taken to account for the expected changes of growth, retirement, rising training costs, and ATP training requirements then surely airlines will be forced to reduce routes and flights for lack of pilots.  The looming pilot shortage predictions in all likelihood will prove false in time; the industry will adapt (likely at cost to the regional airlines) with a combination of innovative flight schools, signing bonuses, gateway programs, and reductions in training costs to attract the qualified pilots needed.  As an airline manager one solution would be generating incentives in the form of sponsoring accomplished students with scholarships, and creating opportunities for career advancement.  In addition attracting future aviation professionals may be accomplished by providing a portion of the required flight training as motivation to seek airline employment.

The demand for pilots is fueled by a globally expanding market, new air routes are being created continuously as air traffic volumes rise.  As aviation industries spread to these regions growth exhibits exponential qualities by increasing business connectivity and creating millions of jobs, and at the same time encouraging the tourist industry.  This explosive rise has driven demand for air travel in a part of the world that is not equipped to directly foster the airline industry.  Boeing expects Asia Pacific airlines to purchase 12,820 new aircraft over the next 20 years and data supplied by Higgins et al. (2013) shows 45% of commercial written tests are being taken by foreigners; together these facts illustrate the source of pilot demand expected in the years to come.  As Boeing is directly involved in the supply of aircraft they have a vested interest to see the proposed pilot shortage solved; by using their global reputation to draw attention to the issue itself will expedite solutions.

References

Boeing. (2013). Long-term Market Outlook.  Retrieved from
http://www.boeing.com/

Glenn, P. (2013, May). The pilot shortage crisis is nigh! . . . Or not. AVweb. Retrieved from http://www.avweb.com/

Higgins, J., Lovelace, K., Bjerke, E., Lounsberry, N., Lutte, R., Friedenzohn, D., ... & Craig, P. (2013). An Investigation of the United States Airline Pilot Labor Supply.

Lowe, P. (2012). FAA official warns industry: expect 'painful' pilot shortage. Aviation International News, 44(19).

Preudhomme, J. D. (2012). The new FAA ATP requirement and pilot staffing considerations for commercial airlines and training institutions. Department of Aviation, University of Missouri, Warrensburg, Missouri.